Former champs in familiar places – same fate for the 500?

  “The World Center of Racing” has delivered some exciting races in the past two days, with a 2 time-former Cup champ crossing the line first in the Nationwide Series opener and the ‘06 Craftsman Truck Series champion taking flight in a wild finish to the checkers on a Friday night spectacular.  The Terrell Owens of stock car manufacturers, Toyota, has gone two-for-two so far in its attempts to reach victory lane, and their chances to win on Sunday for the big race look stout.

I’m definitely not jumping on the bandwagon for the Toyota contigency, and as Katie said in her entry, we shouldn’t say that Toyota was saved by Joe Gibbs Racing.  On the Sprint Cup side of things (and in the Nationwide series too), it’s not like they were a lost cause without JGR.  Whenever Brian Vickers made the field last season, his #83 car ran well but would run into unforseen circumstances such as mechanical failure or a victim of circumstances in someone else’s mess.  Dave Blaney ran magnificiently and finished a stout 3rd in the fall ‘Dega race behind the Chevys of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.  But we can’t ignore the fact that unlike last year’s 500, Toyota looks to be a strong contender to win the Daytona 500, along with the Hendrick Motorsports cast of drivers as well as the Ganassi cars.

Friday night’s Truck Series opener did not disappoint racing fans in attendance or watching the Speed Channel telecast, with 8 lead changes among 6 drivers (including ‘95 champ and oh-so-close ‘07 runner up Mike Skinner, ‘06 champion Bodine and 3 time and defending champ Ron Hornaday), the “Intermediate One,” and the obligatory “Johnny Benson Jr. gets passed for the win” deal, this time done by Driver 30.  Only Rick Crawford and his perennial Tom Mitchell owned #14 truck stopped TRD’s chances of sweeping the top 5.

Saturday’s “Cup Lite” opener produced a sampling of how the Daytona 500 may play out, as the Gibbs versus Hendrick storyline played a major angle in this race.  JGR pilots dominating the first third of the race, with Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch taking turns at the front of the field. It would then become the Martin Truex Jr. versus the Toyota contigency show, with Truex leading 20 of 120 circuits of the race. From there on out after a mini “Big One” that took out 9 cars (which consisted of Kasey Kahne, Johnny Sauter, Nationwide Series icon Jason Keller, former Big E crew chief Kirk Shelmerdine, Stanton Barrett, Steve Wallace, Cale Gale and last year’s Truck Serie Rookie of the Year Willie Allen), all bets on helping teammates were off and Rowdy Shurb and Vickers went at it for the top spot, with Tony Stewart lying back waiting for the right time to pounce and attack for the lead with a handful of laps to go.  Biding his time, the driver of the #20 Armor All Toyota took the lead, one that he would never relinquish for the rest of the Camping World 300, with Busch in 2nd and a rejuvenated Dale Earnhardt Jr finishing a solid third in an ill-handling Chevy.

So what will it take to win the Daytona 500?  Perhaps a fast car with a good handing setup package helps things, and the case has been that Toyota has been strong right off the bat since the first practice sessions at the track.  Good pit stops also play a factor in deciding the race.  Past 500 races have shown that the difference between winning the money and trophy to defeat is on pit road, where a slight hiccup in changing a tire, or miscommunication between crew chief and driver when the jack drops can turn a dominant car to damaged goods merely out there for points for the championship.  Mike Joy of FOX Sports and the Speed Channel was proud to claim that the “slingshot” is back, with the less aerodynamic current car (or for those who liked the old car, the “car of tomorrow“) and higher RPMs making plate racing as exciting as its been.  Make no mistake, some of the hesitance, or as drivers deem, “conservative give and take racing,” we saw in the fall Talladega race will be on display for a portion of the race.  Read in between the lines if the drivers say they’re biding their time in learning the car, because simply put, every driver and team racing tomorrow wants nothing to do with the potential “Big One.” 

Because the racing at the plate tracks is more forgiving on passing due to the ability to pull out and pass cars at will, some of these advantages have created a new con in tire blistering.  Competitors fear not only about a Big Crash, but there’s also the glooming possibility of tire failures.  Hopefully it won’t turn out to be a microcosm of what the 2005 season was like, when debris and tire blistering became as frequent of a headline at the tracks as this year’s ”big stories” of when Tony Stewart and previously Jeff Gordon’s hair would be cut.

So who do I think will win the race today?  It’s hard to tell with race time closing in, but expect the lead to be swapped between the Hendrick camp and the Toyota Trio of Stewart, Shrub and Busch.  Mix in a little Dave Blaney who looked stout in the Shootout, and the almost forgotten Richard Childress Racing camp, the quiet but strong Dodge of Reed Sorenson  and even the Fords of Roush Fenway Racing and the 50th edition of the Great American Race looks to be a harbinger.  If I wanted to be the fan and tell you who’ll win, I’m picking Jeff Gordon, who’s starting eighth and has run well in all of the races so far during Speedweeks.  But as the amateur journalist and wanna-be racing journalist I want to claim I am, I can’t help but notice how strong Dale Earnhardt Jr has run all week long.  Perhaps it’s the Hendrick program on all cylinders, but the fact he no longer has the distraction of his former team on his mind and basically, having nowhere to go but up with his dismal ‘07 season, I expect him to win the 500 over Tony Stewart and Dave Blaney, with Reed Sorenson playing the role of would-be spoiler and Jeff Gordon lurking in the shadows but taking a top 5 spot.  More to come later on that.

On a closing note, when the season truly gets started, we will have a weekly email session in which Katie and I will reply to your emails about the racing world to even what you think of our blog.  Something in NASCAR that’s bothering you?  Want to tell us a laundry list of things you’d do if you could be Mike Helton for the day?  Let us know whatever is on your mind…well racing wise, at CheckersOrWreckersBlog@gmail.com!  We’ll most likely start our weekly email segment next week.  We have some exciting ideas we’re throwing around and when we have a new feature we’d like to put on display here, we’ll be happy to announce them on here!  So until next time, from the Philippines, I hope your race day is truly a flag-to-flag experience!

- Rob

P.S. Spread the word about Checkers or Wreckers to all your racing friends!!!